Word: underprediction
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...were biased, we would expect it to underpredict Black and Latino performance. In study after study, however, the SAT has been shown to, if anything, overpredict minority performance...
...proposition that standardized tests are not biased against Blacks is only true in the narrow sense that they do not underpredict their later academic success. But Klitgaard does not examine the other possible biases of these test although there is a growing body of evidence demonstrating them. Journalist David Owen's recent devastating attack on the validity of the SAT, for example, shows that contrary to popular assumptions, students can be coached to do better on standardized tests--perhaps even to the tune of 100 points. Not withstanding the considerable doubt such findings cast on the notion...
...report does not say anything else about the predictive capacity of women's and Jews' test scores, and Klitgaard said this week he had no Harvard data to support the statement that high test scores underpredict the academic performance of Jewish students. He added that the section on Jewish students will be "written down" in the final version...
There is a sort of psychology working in favor of such underestimations. Explains Conrad Jamieson, the vice president and chief economist of Los Angeles' Security First National Bank: "If you underpredict, you can always say, 'Gee, we did even better than I had predicted,' and it's not so bad. But then if you say, 'Well, we didn't do as well as I thought we would,' you look a lot worse...
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