Word: upturn
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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Measured by the rate at which production will rise, the U.S. economy's recovery from its worst slump since the 1930s will be swift. But business has fallen to such low levels, and has so far to climb back, that even a vigorous upturn will leave unemployment dismayingly high through 1976. That is the consensus of members of TIME'S Board of Economists, who assembled in Manhattan last week to discuss, among other key issues, the probable course of the nation's bounce back from recession. Board Member Arthur Okun sums up: "The rate of growth...
...board members believe that the long-awaited upturn should begin this summer and accelerate smartly after that. During the fourth quarter, most expect real gross national product-output of goods and services, discounted for inflation-to rise at an annual rate of 6% to 7%. For the whole of 1976, a majority of board members predict that production will increase by 6% or more. Okun believes that real G.N.P. will increase at a hefty 8% rate during the first twelve months of the rebound...
Even so, until the public is confident that an upturn has definitely begun, Congress is bound to come under increasing pressure to do more. Unfortunately, last week's economic news indicated that it will be some time before the pressure lifts. The index of leading indicators in March continued its downward trend. New orders to manufacturers fell 3% in March after a February rally, the sixth decline in seven months. Farm prices rose 4% in April, meaning that the present low inflation rate of 3.7% is likely to edge upward...
...Chicago and the Kohl food chain in Wisconsin made similar reductions. A few industries, notably those making machine tools and equipment for oil and coal extraction, are doing well, but recovery for most of the region's heavy industry and appliance makers still hinges on an upturn in housing and autos...
...believes that that is as far as the nation dare go to stimulate recovery while holding inflation down. That stand puts him on a collision course with the overwhelmingly Democratic Congress, which seems determined, at the risk of refueling inflation, to spend more in order to spur a faster upturn...