Word: upturn
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...very least, though, the nation can forget the fear, widespread as 1975 began, that the slump will continue spiraling down into a genuine depression. Hardly a businessman or economist can be found who does not expect an upturn some time this year, and most are looking for it sooner rather than later. "I think honestly that it's going to turn around in this quarter," says Joseph B. Lanterman, chairman of Amsted Industries. Says Lee lacocca, president of Ford Motor Co.: "The worst is behind us." Richard Everett, chief domestic economist of the Chase Manhattan Bank, proclaims himself "confident...
...skepticism is understandable and important-because recoveries, like recessions, depend partly on popular psychology. Calling an upturn is difficult even for professional economists; frequently the process of recovery must go on for two or three months before the signs become unmistakable. Meanwhile, the economy presents a confusingly mixed picture: some indicators are showing strength while others are still plunging-and some, like spending for new plant and equipment, usually go on dropping long after almost everything else has turned...
...economists and businessmen who sight an upturn are not just using their imaginations: there really are signs that the slump is braking to an uneven halt, and that the conditions for an early recovery are falling into place...
READING THE SIGNS. Economists' hopes for an upturn are not based on any single indicator, since many are still dropping. But the decline is slowing, and some trends are emerging that in the past have helped the economy to climb back out of a slump...
...giant first-quarter reduction in inventories (TIME, April 28), which is continuing in April, is clearing businessmen's shelves of unsold goods and thus preparing the way for an eventual upturn in new orders to manufacturers. An end to inventory cutting would bring an almost automatic rise in production, since more output is required to keep inventories steady than to slash them...