Word: upturn
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...upturn will begin in late summer, but it is very likely to be slow and halting...
...should be pushing incomes up faster than prices for the first time in more than a year. Okun warns, however, that the chances of this scenario's turning out to be too optimistic are greater than its chances of being too pessimistic. "I manage to squeeze out an upturn in the fourth quarter," he says, "but I wouldn't put much probability...
Prices will continue to rise less and less controllably as long as businessmen, union leaders and consumers take it for granted that they can always count on the Government to intervene to prop up jobs, incomes and profit. Reflation now, they say, might produce a momentary upturn, but it would only lead to another round of price rises, another consumer panic, another slowdown in business investment-and a more devastating bust. They worry that...
Some glimmerings of trends that could produce an upturn are visible. The Federal Reserve has eased off on its credit squeeze, interest rates are dropping and money is once more beginning to flow back into savings and loan associations. Eventually that should help housing and such allied industries as furniture and appliances-though not for many months, because S and Ls have to repay debts before they can start making new mortgage loans. The strike of 120,000 coal miners, which has badly deepened the recession in the past few weeks, seems on its way to an end; the United...
REAL GROWTH will lag. The economists expect it to be slightly negative or flat in the first half. There should be an upturn toward the end of the year created by increases in consumer spending and somewhat improved conditions in housing. Nevertheless, 1975 will probably mark the second consecutive year of a decline in output, a lull unmatched in a generation...