Word: upturn
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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Martin Gainsbrugh, chief economist of the Conference Board, a nonprofit business research organization, has compiled figures to prove that so far the current upturn has been notably weak. Gainsbrugh calculates that the 1970 "recession"-which was officially given that name by the National Bureau of Economic Research two weeks ago-hit bottom in November. Thus, by the end of April, the present recovery was five months old. At that stage in the four previous postwar recoveries, industrial production showed increases ranging from 6.4% to 10.2% above recession lows, while real gross national product went up anywhere from...
Home-mortgage interest rates have not yet risen, but they are likely to. At an average 7.5%, they are no longer competitive with the yield that lenders can get on bonds and other long-term investments. An increase in mortgage rates could stop the upturn in home building that has so far helped propel the modest economic recovery. Further, the rise in long-term interest rates indicates the financial community's lack of confidence that the Nixon Administration's policies will eventually defeat inflation. A rule of thumb in the credit markets is that the "basic" interest rate...
...unlike this year's unintended one-is there to stimulate the economy, presumably to a degree so judicious that further inflation would be controlled. A budget, however, is only a plan and a set of assumptions. Nixon, to his possible future regret, bases his projections on a steeper upturn in the economy than most independent experts predict (see BUSINESS...
...issue. The Commerce Department reported that its economic leading indicators rose an average of 1% in November. November also saw an increase in help-wanted classified ads for the first time in 14 months. In Paris, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted a "fairly strong" U.S. business upturn-and a slackening of inflation-for 1971. Last week the Dow-Jones average soared into the mid-800s, the high...
...also a time for journalists and critics to look forward to what 1970 would bring, but their record turned out to be nearly as spotty as the astrologers. Many expected a hot summer of black unrest in the ghettos that never materialized. Economists looked for a solid upturn from recession by the end of 1970, but there has been none. Few observers of the U.S. scene foresaw that political passions on the campuses would become muted in a new emphasis on "privatism." One who was right on, however, was Arthur Koestler, who said late in 1969 that writers and film...