Word: upturn
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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Even more than usual, the outcome of the auto negotiations promises to have a large psychological, political and economic impact on the nation. A prolonged strike this fall could easily check a promising upturn in business, spread new gloom among investors and consumers, and raise unemployment to levels higher than it would otherwise reach. A severely inflationary settlement, however, would establish a pattern for 1971, when major union contracts covering about 4,000,000 workers must be negotiated...
Minuses and Pluses. The generally optimistic forecasts could be thrown off course by several factors. An auto strike, which seems likely to begin in mid-September, could seriously delay an upturn in national production. Business spending for new plant and equipment is slowing, partly because U.S. industries operated their existing plants at less than 78% of capacity in the second quarter. Reductions in defense spending will continue to hurt some industries, notably aerospace...
Despite the recent upturn in the stock market, Wall Street these days is hardly the avenue of joy. Most firms are still reducing payrolls, closing branches and trying to sublet excess space. One notable exception is Salomon Bros., the nation's biggest bond-trading house and fourth largest underwriter of securities. Salomon Bros.' broad-ranging business has been better than ever, and the firm has outgrown its quarters. Last week it moved into new, highly computerized walnut-and-glass offices that are more than double the size of those it occupied for almost half a century...
...recession," he wrote two months ago, "and that is the way we seem to be heading." After President Nixon's latest speech on the economy, Rinfret again changed his mind. "It was a turning point in economic policy," he says. "The odds modestly favor an upturn in the second half of the year. Both fiscal and monetary policy have shifted from restraint to expansion." As Rinfret sees it, the Administration was forced to stop using these two main weapons against inflation in order to avoid a financial panic. Now he adds: "The only way left to fight inflation...
Nixon's house economists are gambling on an upturn by midsummer, and experts like Leif Olsen, senior vice president and economist of First National City Bank, see a lessening of inflation. No one has more riding on an inflationary slowdown than Nixon himself. As a political mathematician, he need only look at economics statistics to realize that few groups have been hit harder by the recession than the usually secure middle class of the West and Midwestern industrial centers that helped him to victory...