Word: upturn
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Dates: during 1980-1989
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...produced the sort of wide-ranging answers needed. What is acknowledged is that there are no quick fixes. The only lasting solution would be an upturn in the world economy, setting the industrialized world's plants humming with new business, lessening calls for protectionism, and increasing demand for the borrowing nations' commodities. That would sharply improve the economies of the Third World and the East bloc as well and in turn make it easier for them to repay borrowings on time and in full. Says Nicholas Hope, chief of the World Bank's external-debt division: "Trying...
...best, the upturn will be slow and feeble. The board foresees growth in the gross national product, after adjustment for inflation, of about 3% next year, which would be only half the pace of most past recoveries. Even that modest progress will be in jeopardy unless the White House and Congress take decisive action to boost consumer confidence, lower interest rates and convince the financial markets that alarming federal deficits can be curbed. Said Otto Eckstein, a Harvard professor and chairman of the Data Resources economic consulting firm: "We're all hoping and praying for a recovery...
TIME's board warned, however, that a recovery is not assured. Reason: interest rates may still be too high to support an upturn. Since July, the benchmark prime rate on bank loans has dipped from 16% to 11.5%, but that level is 6.5 points higher than the 5% inflation rate. Historically, the cost of borrowing money has usually been only 2 to 3 points above the rate of price rises. Consumer credit remains discouragingly expensive. Bank of America, for example, charges 22% on personal loans...
Okita believes that Japan nonetheless will double its growth rate, to 5%, by the end of 1983-but only with an upturn in the sluggish Western economies. Said Okita: "Japan cannot remain an island of prosperity in an ocean of recession...
...Cost cutting has been so furious that analysts expect even a modest recovery to produce larger profits. But improved sales will necessarily depend on the strength of the U.S. economy. Automen are universally convinced that they have seen the worst. What they cannot figure out now is when the upturn will come. -By Alexander L. Taylor III. Reported by Paul A. Witteman/Detroit