Word: upturn
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...brokerage CLSA in Hong Kong, who has maintained his 5.5% growth estimate for 2009. Jun Ma, an economist at Deutsche Bank, argues that China will experience a "double-dip" or "W-shaped" recovery. While the economy may show signs of life in the near term, he believes the current upturn will fizzle and the economy won't hit a final bottom until the first half...
...exposed to the global downturn as China. "India has not been growing in the past decade because of excess world growth," Walker says. "Domestic demand is the strong component." He also argues that Asia could take the lead in a global recovery, and might show signs of an upturn by early 2010. The turnaround will be sparked by Asian companies, which generally are in healthy shape. "They are much less leveraged" than in the past, Walker says. "There has been an aversion to taking on debt in Asia since 1998. There is less vulnerability to a downturn in economic activity...
...recovery in the United States is that the early portions of the economic recovery cycle are always very, very dependent on credit. Things like housing, autos, big-ticket retailing. And we doubt that credit creation is going to see the kind of dramatic recovery that would cause a significant upturn in the economy...
Bernstein: We do not think that people should be looking at value funds yet. Value stocks are very dependent on credit, that is, their performance is very related to the upturn in the economic cycle. We really don't have a lot of evidence right now to support an emphasis on value stocks. We prefer growth stocks, though there's more than one type of growth stock. There are the companies offering stable growth, where the stocks sell at a reasonable price, and then there's kind of the momentum growth. And growth mutual funds follow one or the other...
...second consecutive quarter-on-quarter contraction. That officially means Hong Kong is in a recession, and it doesn't look likely to end any time soon. The government lowered its forecast for 2008 growth from 4-5% to 3-3.5%. "The global financial turmoil has derailed the economic upturn that Hong Kong has enjoyed," government economist Helen Chan told reporters. (See pictures of the global financial crisis...