Word: upturn
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...biggest hike since 1967. Consumer prices in April rose at an annual rate of 7.4%, about double the abnormally low March pace, but the increase was still less than in any month during 1974. Consumers may not follow the detailed figures, but they have heard the forecasts of upturn, and some are acting on them...
Second Push. Economists are betting that revived consumer spending for a broad variety of goods can get an upturn going without an immediate lift from the auto industry. The new question to which some are turning: What will those retailers and manufacturers who do benefit from rebate spending do with the money? If they in turn step up their outlays to order more goods and increase production, the economy will get a second upward push from the rebates during the last half of this year...
Measured by the rate at which production will rise, the U.S. economy's recovery from its worst slump since the 1930s will be swift. But business has fallen to such low levels, and has so far to climb back, that even a vigorous upturn will leave unemployment dismayingly high through 1976. That is the consensus of members of TIME'S Board of Economists, who assembled in Manhattan last week to discuss, among other key issues, the probable course of the nation's bounce back from recession. Board Member Arthur Okun sums up: "The rate of growth...
...board members believe that the long-awaited upturn should begin this summer and accelerate smartly after that. During the fourth quarter, most expect real gross national product-output of goods and services, discounted for inflation-to rise at an annual rate of 6% to 7%. For the whole of 1976, a majority of board members predict that production will increase by 6% or more. Okun believes that real G.N.P. will increase at a hefty 8% rate during the first twelve months of the rebound...
Liberal members of the board, such as Okun and Pechman, think that a faster upturn is possible, but it would require more Government stimulation of the economy. Most would wait until late this year or early next to see if big new tax cuts or spending programs are necessary, but they believe that some steps could be taken now. At minimum, they think the income tax cut should be extended through 1976 rather than being allowed to expire on Dec. 31, as it will under present law; Congress is almost certain to agree. Some members would also have the Federal...