Word: upturn
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...most economists, the question no longer is whether but when the upturn will begin. Robert R. Nathan, who is head of his own economic consulting firm, expresses a gloomy outlook; he warns that the economy must still undergo severe readjustments, most notably in further inventory reductions. "To get too gleeful now is like saying, 'Great, we don't have cancer, just a serious infection.' " Nathan expects that if an upturn does take place this year, it will not occur until the fourth quarter...
Even as the U.S. waits expectantly for an upturn in its slumping economy, recession in much of the rest of the non-Communist world is deepening. Though some nations are hoping for the beginning of the end of hard times later this year, no abrupt reversal of the worldwide drop in production and rise in unemployment seems likely, largely because the slide is so widespread. The situation underscores the perils raised by the growing interdependence of key industrial countries. In an era when heavy world trade, the operations of multinational companies, and massive flows of money across international borders have...
...effective is the final tax package? While arguing that it should have been even larger, Walter Heller, a member of TIME'S Board of Economists, says that the bill is "an excellent beginning" and "substantially improves the prospect for a vigorous upturn in the second half of this year." He especially approves the bill's emphasis on helping less affluent taxpayers, considering it a historic shift by the Congress. Another board member, Otto Eckstein, also sees a healthy stimulus for 1975 but worries that there will be little continued impact in 1976. Most experts seemed to agree with...
...will insist on voting permanent programs such as the farm-support bill, rather than short-term stimulation measures that can be revoked when recovery makes them unnecessary. In that event, the public and private sectors of the U.S. will be placed on a collision course that would reverse the upturn and perhaps leave the nation worse off than it was before the recovery began...
Housing starts in January ran at an annual rate of 987,000 v. 2.5 million in January 1973. Yet some surveys indicate that a modest upturn is likely. The Manhattan consulting firm of Townsend-Greenspan forecasts that the pace of housing starts could hit 1.4 million by year's end. Many of these predictions assume that cuts in federal taxes and a decline in the rate of price increases will put consumers in a more confident home-buying mood. Whether those assumptions are correct could have critical significance. A resurgence in housing has been a leading force in lifting...