Word: upturn
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Minuses and Pluses. The generally optimistic forecasts could be thrown off course by several factors. An auto strike, which seems likely to begin in mid-September, could seriously delay an upturn in national production. Business spending for new plant and equipment is slowing, partly because U.S. industries operated their existing plants at less than 78% of capacity in the second quarter. Reductions in defense spending will continue to hurt some industries, notably aerospace...
...recession," he wrote two months ago, "and that is the way we seem to be heading." After President Nixon's latest speech on the economy, Rinfret again changed his mind. "It was a turning point in economic policy," he says. "The odds modestly favor an upturn in the second half of the year. Both fiscal and monetary policy have shifted from restraint to expansion." As Rinfret sees it, the Administration was forced to stop using these two main weapons against inflation in order to avoid a financial panic. Now he adds: "The only way left to fight inflation...
Nixon's house economists are gambling on an upturn by midsummer, and experts like Leif Olsen, senior vice president and economist of First National City Bank, see a lessening of inflation. No one has more riding on an inflationary slowdown than Nixon himself. As a political mathematician, he need only look at economics statistics to realize that few groups have been hit harder by the recession than the usually secure middle class of the West and Midwestern industrial centers that helped him to victory...
...rise in consumer spending is essential to the Nixon Administration's plan for an economic upturn later this year. But hope for that rise dwindled last week with the findings of a University of Michigan quarterly survey of 1.300 families, which showed consumers less inclined to buy than at any time in the 18-year history of the survey. During April and May, for example, the proportion of families intending to purchase new cars was 20% below the same period a year ago. Based on consumers' personal financial expectations and buying plans, the survey's index...
...year, and a $1.3 billion deficit next year. Even those estimates may be optimistic. They are based on a January forecast that taxable corporate profits would hit $89.5 billion this year. In the year's first quarter, profits ran at a rate of only $85 billion. Unless the business upturn foreseen in the game plan starts soon, the U.S. stands to run a much deeper budget deficit...