Word: upturning
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There are indeed some indications that the economy may be breaking out of the inflation-recession cycle. But the upturn so long awaited has not yet arrived and before it can strengthen into a sustained advance, many hard decisions, especially concerning the budget, must be made. These may involve more pain, but the alternative is a return to the failed and unacceptable economic poli cies of the past...
With rare unanimity, however, economists warn that the upturn, whenever it comes, will be painfully slow and gradual. Robert Ortner, chief economist of the U.S. Department of Commerce, ; observes that after past recessions the total output of goods and services on average has jumped 7% in the first year of recovery. "This time it will be less than that," he says. That is putting the case very mildly; many private economists guess that the upswing will be only half as vigorous as it traditionally is. Walter Heller, a member of TIME'S Board of Economists, has compiled a self...
...wobbly, fragile and anemic upswing is that interest rates, despite their declines, are still much too high to encourage any big revival in such credit-sensitive industries as housing and autos, which are the ones that traditionally lead a vigorous recovery. Some economists speculate that this time the business upturn will be sparked by the buying of smaller-ticket items: clothing, furniture, even computer games. They see the 1% rise in retail sales in July as a hopeful sign of increased consumer spending...
...first, continue beyond a year or so and lead to a sustained period of increasing production, incomes, jobs and living standards? That would belatedly vindicate President Reagan's view that the recession was the bitter price that had to be paid for future healthy growth. Or will the upturn sputter along at half-speed through many months or even years of continued high unemployment, until the economy slips into a new recession? Some liberal economists warn that this may happen, and conservatives by no means dismiss the possibility...
...flawless-grade stone that brought $62,000 at the peak of the market in 1980 is now worth only $15,000 or less, a decline of more than 75%. De Beers' sales arm, the Central Selling Organization, saw profits tumble 46% in 1981, and Oppenheimer says that an upturn is not yet in sight...