Word: upturning
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...long is the public's memory? Will voters be mad at Nixon because of the economic failures in the early years of his presidency? Or will they be so enthused by an upturn in prosperity and a downturn in inflation next year that they will grant him a second term? For men who count votes, these promise to be the big questions...
...about 5% above last year's disappointing levels. Since prices have inflated about 5% in the past year, the actual volume of goods sold is about the same as in 1970. Says Harold Brockey, president of Rich's department store in Atlanta: "We look for no real upturn until...
Martin Gainsbrugh, chief economist of the Conference Board, a nonprofit business research organization, has compiled figures to prove that so far the current upturn has been notably weak. Gainsbrugh calculates that the 1970 "recession"-which was officially given that name by the National Bureau of Economic Research two weeks ago-hit bottom in November. Thus, by the end of April, the present recovery was five months old. At that stage in the four previous postwar recoveries, industrial production showed increases ranging from 6.4% to 10.2% above recession lows, while real gross national product went up anywhere from...
...housing upturn, however, may be leveling off. Construction is getting close to the annual rate of 2,000,000 starts that some housing experts believe to be the probable average for the 1970s. Besides, mortgage interest rates have begun to rise again, and are likely to go still higher because other interest rates are climbing...
Home-mortgage interest rates have not yet risen, but they are likely to. At an average 7.5%, they are no longer competitive with the yield that lenders can get on bonds and other long-term investments. An increase in mortgage rates could stop the upturn in home building that has so far helped propel the modest economic recovery. Further, the rise in long-term interest rates indicates the financial community's lack of confidence that the Nixon Administration's policies will eventually defeat inflation. A rule of thumb in the credit markets is that the "basic" interest rate...