Word: upturns
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Dates: during 1930-1939
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...carry an average of 2,000,000 workers on WPA (mostly manual labor) through the coming year. For PWA (heavy construction works) he asked nothing this time. In the weeks that have passed since that message, Mr. Roosevelt's hopes for an upturn in the capital goods industries have dwindled. Beside the picture of 11,000,000 idle workers has persisted a picture of billions of idle dollars. More & more public spending, in the absence of private investment, is known to be Mr. Roosevelt's sorcery against this old nightmare, as always before. Last week, therefore, observers were...
...June shorts were squeezed in cotton, hide, rubber, lesser commodities, as well as in stocks. Last week, also on a lesser scale, speculatively minded manufacturers, who had gone short of raw materials, again turned to buy in a rising market. The difference this year is that the commodity price upturn is accompanied by falling instead of rising production, is more speculative, than industrial; cotton textile prices rose as inventories peaked again at over 200,000,000 yards, and manufacturers discussed ways of carrying unwanted cloth; hide prices zoomed as leather production fell from...
Production. Very different in one respect was last week's upturn from that of a year ago. At that time the Federal Reserve Board's index of production fell two points in April, one point in May, turned in June, was on its way up in July (although reported several weeks late its trend can generally be anticipated from weekly figures on various industries). Last week the Board's index reported a six-point drop for April, and May production was guesstimated at 90, June still lower...
Government Magic. The 1938 market upturn was signalized by Franklin Roosevelt's decision to prime the pump once again by putting $4,000,000,000 of emergency money into circulation. Last week the President had made no such decision but speculators hoped for other forms of Government magic. They had reason to expect that business would get a modest boost from repeal of some of the more painful provisions...
Significance. The most notable feature of last week's stockmarket upturn was that so far as it rested on solid ground it was based on expectation of Government action. Imminent repeal of taxes on capital gains and undistributed profits entitle stocks to enjoy a modest two or three day rally. But for the first time in nearly a year the market ceased to be a slavish follower of production. Time was when the market presumed to anticipate changing trends in production three to six months in advance. In June 1938 the market anticipated production by only a few weeks...