Word: upturns
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Pessimism has become so ingrained in Western Europe that even a modest economic upturn catches people by surprise. Six months ago, TIME'S European Board of Economists feared that the incipient recovery might be aborted by persistently high interest rates or a sudden crisis in the world's strained financial system. That did not happen, and, at their latest meeting in Paris, TIME'S board indulged in some unfamiliar, if mild optimism...
...reduce inflation from 12.4% in 1980 to 3.9% in 1982, the central bank eased up considerably in the last half of 1982 and early 1983. The change in policy helped push down the prime rate that banks charge for corporate loans, from 16.5% to 10.5%, and triggered an economic upturn last spring that was much brisker than expected. From April through September, the gross national product, adjusted for inflation, expanded at an 8.6% annual pace. The economy was so exuberant, in fact, that the Reserve Board decided to tighten slightly in late spring, and the prime rate later rose...
...near future, economists are hopeful that the recovery will stay on course. "We have an economy that is bursting with energy," says Allen Sinai, a senior vice president of Data Resources, an economic forecasting firm. A new crop of 3 Government reports indicated last week that the strong upturn is continuing. U.S. industrial production rose 1.1% in June, the seventh monthly increase in a row, while June retail sales gained .7%. Says Walter Heller, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Presidents Kennedy and Johnson: "A percentage point increase on the interest rate would not abort the expansion because...
...Federal Reserve decides that the money supply is growing too fast and slams on the brakes, it could halt the young recovery, which has been under way only since the beginning of the year. In some ways, that economic upturn is stronger than anticipated. Retail sales in May rose 2.1%, their strongest rise in months. But the recovery's true breadth and depth are as yet unshaped. Unemployment is down, but only slightly, to 10.1% of the U.S. labor force, and the 10.1% of the U.S. labor force, and the layoffs...
Here and there around Mexico, other signs of an economic upturn can be seen. The clampdown on foreign goods, for example, has worked. Imports are down 70%, running at $4 billion below targets. That has helped create a balance of payments surplus of $3.4 billion vs. a $708 million deficit for the same period last year...