Word: upturns
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...chorus of confidence is swelling across the U.S. After months of gloom and fear instilled by the worst slump since the 1930s, the nation's leading economists and the chiefs of its major corporations are now almost unanimously saying that the recession is ending and that an upturn is on the way. Both the timing and the strength of the recovery are in sharp dispute. A sprinkling of optimists asserts that it has begun already and will gain speed rapidly. A few pessimists expect the economy to bump along close to its recession lows for many painful months before...
...very least, though, the nation can forget the fear, widespread as 1975 began, that the slump will continue spiraling down into a genuine depression. Hardly a businessman or economist can be found who does not expect an upturn some time this year, and most are looking for it sooner rather than later. "I think honestly that it's going to turn around in this quarter," says Joseph B. Lanterman, chairman of Amsted Industries. Says Lee lacocca, president of Ford Motor Co.: "The worst is behind us." Richard Everett, chief domestic economist of the Chase Manhattan Bank, proclaims himself "confident...
...skepticism is understandable and important-because recoveries, like recessions, depend partly on popular psychology. Calling an upturn is difficult even for professional economists; frequently the process of recovery must go on for two or three months before the signs become unmistakable. Meanwhile, the economy presents a confusingly mixed picture: some indicators are showing strength while others are still plunging-and some, like spending for new plant and equipment, usually go on dropping long after almost everything else has turned...
...economists and businessmen who sight an upturn are not just using their imaginations: there really are signs that the slump is braking to an uneven halt, and that the conditions for an early recovery are falling into place...
...only four months ago. The main worry is that if the recovery fails to reduce the disastrous unemployment rate, now at 8.7%, Congress will institute new spending programs, which in turn would fuel a resumption of inflation. "We have literally sown the seed for the upturn," says Murray Weidenbaum, a former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury. "Let's not flood it with more federal spending...