Word: upturns
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...bleaker note than Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, when he testified before the Joint Economic Committee last week. "The outlook for 1975 is neither pleasant nor reassuring to those who hope for a sudden correction of our problems," he said. He did not foresee an upturn until the third quarter, if then, unless there is a major change in policies. "Although we had expected some weakening, what we are now experiencing has come upon us much more suddenly than we generally realized...
...then rebounded smartly. Stocks rose briskly after the Dow bottomed out at 437 in 1958, at 536 in 1962 and at 631 in 1970. Four-year men thus believe that the 1974 low reached in early December was an important bottom that must be followed by a sharp upturn...
...upturn will begin in late summer, but it is very likely to be slow and halting...
...should be pushing incomes up faster than prices for the first time in more than a year. Okun warns, however, that the chances of this scenario's turning out to be too optimistic are greater than its chances of being too pessimistic. "I manage to squeeze out an upturn in the fourth quarter," he says, "but I wouldn't put much probability...
Partly because the past year was so bad, the outlook for 1975 is somewhat brighter. If nothing else, analysts say, stock prices have discounted just about all the bad news that can be realistically expected and are due for an upturn, perhaps by spring, that could gradually push the Dow to around 800 by year's end (no higher than it was in early 1964). Their major reason: as the worsening recession bites into corporate profits and the rate of inflation, investors will sense that the economy is about to bottom out and will begin buying in advance...