Word: upwards
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Despite the excitement, market watchers were divided on how long the party would last. In the past their predictions have gone wide of the mark. A bull market began almost exactly two years ago on Friday, Aug. 13, when the Dow Jones stood at 776.92. The Dow went upward for ten months, until the middle of 1983, and forecasters confidently predicted it would reach 1400 or 1500. Instead, it then began drifting sideways. This year, while many money managers expected the market to pick up steam again, it sank instead. The price of an average share of stock...
...witnessing just a brief spurt or a true second leg on the bull market that would take the averages even higher. John Paulus, the chief economist for Morgan Stanley, the investment banking house, had a note of caution. Said he: "The economy still has a good deal of upward momentum, which will have to be moderated by rising interest rates at some point. The gross national product rose 8.8% in the first half of the year and is now moving ahead at between 4% and 5%. That is still too rapid a rate to be consistent with stable inflation...
Despite the underlying strength of the recovery, which Brittan compared with the "golden age" before the first oil crisis in 1973, the slow upward creep of unemployment-now at 12.5%-has not halted. The problem, according to Brittan, is that labor is taking the fruits of the economic upswing in the form of higher pay rather than in more jobs. The spurt in corporate profits, up 25% last year and expected to continue rising, could gradually encourage employers to hire more workers, Brittan believes...
...powerful fusion of forces has been propelling the dollar upward. "It's not just a single factor," says Salomon Brothers Chief Economist Henry Kaufman. "It's the combination." High U.S. interest rates that attract foreign cash are among the major reasons. At 13%, the U.S. prime rate is at its loftiest since September 1982, and pressures from the huge federal deficit and the economic rebound are likely to drive the prime higher. High interest rates, of course, can be good for those with money in the bank...
...steepness of the decline in unemployment is causing some economists to fear that the recovery is moving too fast. An overheated economy, fueled in part by the huge federal budget deficit, could continue pushing interest rates upward and possibly reignite inflation. That might stall the American job machine as early as 1985. For the moment, though, the economy is humming along. Last month some 460,000 people went back to work. For them, punching a time clock never felt so good...