Word: vanning
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...companies for the just-ended third quarter will be decidedly mixed. "The overall picture for the third quarter is very similar to the second quarter, with most firms beating expectations while the top and bottom lines [i.e., revenues and profits] are still lower than a year ago," says Dirk Van Dijk, chief equity strategist for Zacks Investment Research. Overall, Zacks' analyst surveys suggest that earnings for the S&P 500 will be down 23.8% from last year's third quarter...
...That would spell trouble for stocks were it not for high investor confidence that a blockbuster fourth quarter is about to unfold. "Earnings on a year-over-year basis are expected to more than double in the fourth quarter," says Van Dijk, thanks largely to big recovery in the financial sector. In the final quarter of 2008 AIG imploded, losing $38 billion. With that ball of lead no longer weighing down the financial group average, earnings will surge. (See pictures of the top 10 scared stock traders...
...Calculating the financial group's improvement can be a bit tricky since going from a loss to a profit isn't truly a percentage improvement. "When you cross over zero, comparisons get weird," says Van Dijk. Even so, the financial group's turnaround - it should log $15 billion or more in fourth-quarter profit - will give a strong boost to the S&P 500 composite earnings. The S&P will also be boosted by a famous departure: "GM was losing billions last year, but it's no longer in the S&P," observes Van Dijk...
...Investors will be getting some tangible good news on earnings too. According to Zacks, companies currently in their fourth quarter are expected to show a modest 7.7% gain over the third quarter of 2009. That's not spectacular, but it's progress and it's real. Says Van Dijk, "It's positive news for the stock market...
...over 7,000 words, and I can’t begin to pick what to include: the fact that they argued way back then that global warming was a real phenomenon? That they and their fellow debaters go to each other’s weddings and anniversaries? Or: van rides back to Cambridge over Thanksgiving singing Christmas carols; eating pancakes at an off-the-road-diner in Western Pennsylvania; “working all-nighters in the concrete block debate office of that era, windowless, in the basement of Quincy House”; “emerging for breakfast...