Word: virus
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...Moves to shield the country from a human strain of avian flu have been in full swing ever since. And should they fail, how prepared is Australia to cope with an outbreak? More prepared than most countries, and about as ready as it's possible to be for a virus that could be up to 25 times more deadly than a standard flu (thus killing 2.5% of those it infects), to which no one is yet immune, and for which there's no effective treatment. The gloomiest scenario for Australia, Abbott says, is an outbreak "that would bring life...
...Quite a bit would have to go wrong before it came to that. Even if the virus, H5N1, mutates into a strain that can jump from person to person, it's not inevitable that it will make it into Australia from Southeast Asia, says CMO Horvath, chairman of the National Influenza Pandemic Action Committee (NIPAC). It's likely the first cases of person-to-person transmission in Asia would occur in clusters, where local authorities, working alongside the World Health Organization and AusAID, would try to contain the virus by quarantining the sick and giving them - and those...
...slipped into the country, at which point the challenge for Australian authorities would start in earnest. Theoretically, Horvath could assume extraordinary powers by invoking the Quarantine Act. But the CMO says he would advise government leaders on closing schools and canceling sporting events in an attempt to control the virus' spread, and on distributing antivirals from the country's stockpile of 4 million doses. That sounds like a lot of antivirals - and per capita only Finland has more - but it would be "woefully inadequate" if the bug were rampant, says Peter Curson, director of health studies at Sydney's Macquarie...
...some extent based on that premise. "This is a good scientific gamble," says Horvath, "but if it's (a different strain) . . . well, it's a bit like buying a battleship that you don't ever fire a gun from. If the eventual pandemic is H5NI and the virus hasn't drifted significantly, then we've hit the jackpot. If it drifts somewhat, then there's a lot of evidence that the vaccine will still be effective to some extent...
...Ministry of Agriculture did announce last week that it would begin culling infected birds, as Thailand and Vietnam do, rather than simply vaccinating them. (Vaccinated poultry may continue to spread the H5N1 virus.) But while the government insists it's doing all it can to control the disease, some are taking preparations into their own hands. One Australian bank has drawn up its own contingency plans for an outbreak and is stocking up on the antiviral drug Tamiflu. When it comes to keeping bird flu at bay, says a bank executive, "We have no faith in the government...