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Indeed, so far there is very little reason for anyone outside Mexico to be worried about their health. There are relatively few cases in the U.S. and other infected countries outside Mexico, and none of those cases have been serious. The virus appears to be vulnerable to antiviral drugs like Tamiflu, and thanks to global pandemic preparations since the SARS epidemic of 2003 and last year's flu outbreak in Hong Kong, the U.S. and other developed countries maintain large stockpiles of the drug. "We are seeing a much more clear and cogent response than in the past," said Laurie...
Despite the fact that cases outside Mexico haven't been serious, the situation is far from secure. For one thing, scientists still don't know why the virus appears to have caused more serious disease in Mexico. It could be that the virus has simply been there longer or that patients were not treated quickly enough with antivirals; or it could be that a more serious epidemic is still to come in other parts of the world...
What is puzzling, however, is the WHO's decision to escalate the alert now, when the world has most likely missed its chance to contain the virus. When the WHO's pandemic alert system was first conceived, phase 4 was intended to indicate the moment when a new flu virus had been identified and could spread effectively from person to person (as Asia's H5N1's bird flu virus, which reached phase 3, has never been able to do), but was still limited enough that health officials could launch a global effort to contain it and snuff it out with...
...clearly too late for that now - the swine flu virus has jumped across borders, and both the WHO and CDC have acknowledged that containment is no longer an option. So, while raising the alert level, the WHO also recommended that countries do not close borders or impose travel bans. "Restricting travel would have very little effect on stopping the movement of this virus," said Fukuda. At this point, trying to close borders would be like closing the barn door after the horse has bolted - better to focus on community-level protections like better disease surveillance and hygiene. (Read "Battling Swine...
...there are more questions than answers. Most important among them: Exactly what is going on in Mexico, where epidemiologists are still working to understand the swine flu outbreak? Uncertainty, however, is unavoidable when it comes to influenza - a shifty, erratic virus that is harder to get a handle on than, well, a greased pig. "There is no standard picture for how this will develop," said Fukuda. "We don't know...