Word: volckerism
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...prices for oil unless there is some major supply disruption." Otto Eckstein, chairman of Data Resources, a business consulting firm, estimated that oil prices, after being adjusted for inflation, will fall by 3% annually for the next two years. Finally, the board members expect that Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker will maintain monetary discipline to guard against any new burst of inflation...
Interest Rates. Volcker's tough policy will keep the cost of borrowing money high. The TIME board predicts that the prime rate for business loans will edge down slowly from the current 20½% to 17¾% by the end of the year. But intense upward pressure on rates will come from strong federal borrowing. The economists agree with the Congressional Budget Office that without new budget cuts, the deficit will reach about $65 billion next year, some $23 billion more than the White House has predicted. Said Joseph Pechman, director of economic studies at the Brookings Institution...
...fact, no one knows how long that process might take. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker has lately been sending out strong and convincing signals that the central bank intends to stand firm, but demands that the Federal Reserve ease up are already mounting. Conservative Economist Michael Evans of Evans Economics Inc. last week urged the President to declare an end to tight money. Said he: "The President should say to Mr. Volcker, 'Look, we've made good progress with this policy, but now it is threatening to throw the economy into a serious recession, and it is time...
What troubles Wall Street moneymen, however, is not Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker's tight-money tactic, which they generally support, but the lack of an equally resolute stance on fiscal policy. Some bankers and analysts fear that the President's tax cut plans, plus his projected defense spending buildup, will more than offset the Administration's deep spending cuts elsewhere in the budget, and thus increase the need for federal borrowing. Interest-rate pessimists like investment bank Economists Henry Kaufman of Salomon Bros, and Albert Wojnilower of First Boston Corp., who have been nicknamed Dr. Doom...
...Fekete, 62, first deputy president of the National Bank of Hungary. Vigorous, fluent in five languages as well as economics, Fekete is one of the few Communist bankers who move easily in Western financial circles. Last week he was in the U.S. and visited with Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker and members of the Reagan Administration. He also met with Citibank Chairman Walter Wriston and discussed final details of a new $400 million loan from private American and European banks...