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...line quickly becomes a blurry fan-shaped region, underscoring that as time marches forward, the variable being forecast falls into an ever broader range of possibilities. "The more you think in terms of distribution of outcomes, the better," says Gregory Mankiw, a Harvard economist who chaired President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. "You're always keeping in mind the inherent uncertainty." The Bank of England is a big user of the fan chart when its economists talk about inflation forecasts. Plenty of U.S. agencies, like the Social Security Administration, use them...
...Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro has made an effort to reach out to the Obama Administration. On the U.S. side, much of the credit goes to Thomas Shannon, outgoing Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs. Shannon, appointed in 2005, worked to alter President George W. Bush's dark first-term relations with Latin America, when Chávez called Bush "the devil" in large part because the White House had tacitly backed the 2002 coup attempt. As a result, the Latin left has less anti-Yanqui fodder to ignite. Shannon's nominated successor, Arturo Valenzuela, should...
...destabilize Iran are hardly confined to paranoid mullahs. Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, former National Security Council officials in the Bush Administration, wrote in May that "the Obama Administration has done nothing to cancel or repudiate an ostensibly covert but well-publicized program, begun in President George W. Bush's second term, to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to destabilize the Islamic Republic...
...Last year the company's founder, Jack Ma, began to worry about the souring economy and its impact on Alibaba's 32 million members. "He told his lieutenants to all go out and figure out how to help our customers because there's a bad time coming," says John W. Spelich, Alibaba's vice president for international corporate affairs...
...final offensives against the Tigers. You resisted that pressure, and yet these are some of your biggest trading partners. Are you worried about jeopardizing those relationships? I don't think they're so petty-minded. They're the people who encouraged us to defeat terrorism. We followed what [George W.] Bush said. We accomplished what he wanted: eliminate terrorism. They must give credit to us. We fought their war. We showed that you can defeat terrorism...