Word: weitz
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...WEITZ: Finally...
...WEITZ: It is. But what you're really trying to do is think about probabilities, what a company will be worth over 10 or 20 years. In that context, it doesn't really matter whether the recession troughs in the second quarter or fourth quarter. What you're thinking is, When the economy gets back to where it was, will that company do about as well as it had been doing? If there haven't been any new hotels built and people are traveling again, the odds are pretty high that a high-end hotel will prosper...
...WEITZ: I would hope none of us would say we have a new investment theory now. I was already getting to be much more conscious of credit quality and balance sheets and that sort of thing, feeling that maybe it was time to have a recession and that defensive business characteristics would be more important. I guess that goes double when you're in a period when anything's possible. I've been buying much more of the kinds of companies that are visibly hurt by the terrorist attacks, like hotels and entertainment companies. Some people might think that...
...WEITZ: I can't go that...
...WEITZ: I'll piggyback on the hotel business with Host Marriott. The stock is about $7.50. They own Ritz Carltons and Marriotts and high-end hotels. Going into this year, I expected them to earn about $2 per share, pay out $1.04 as a dividend, spend about 50[cents] on required maintenance and have about 50 cents left to reinvest in new properties. On that basis, the properties could be sold with one phone call for about $15 a share. So if it takes five years to get to $15, you make 15% a year. And I can't imagine...