Word: wheats
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Although Soviet cargo planes are still flying in, the Russian wheat they are carrying is actually supplied by the Indian government (purchased by New Delhi under a barter arrangement). Despite those shipments, Kabul is suffering from a major wheat shortage at a time when it usually stockpiles supplies for the long winter. Najibullah still has a formidable store of weapons but is facing a critical shortage of fuel. The price of gasoline has more than doubled in recent months, and Western correspondents report only a trickle of traffic on Kabul's streets...
Beginning in the mid-'80s, however, the momentum of the green revolution slowed dramatically, especially in parts of India, China and Pakistan. In India's Punjab state, yields of rice and wheat have begun to flatten despite increasing reliance on fertilizers and better use of water. Elsewhere in Asia, rice researchers have failed to raise yields significantly for more than two decades. Hidden costs of the green revolution have begun to surface all around the world: the amount of irrigated land, which produces 35% of the food supply, has been declining in per capita terms. One reason is that fields...
According to economist Peter Hazell, who conducted a study of crop volatility for the International Food Policy Research Institute, the likelihood of major food shortfalls has doubled during the past four decades. India, for instance, relies heavily on one type of fast-growing wheat, called sonalika, that is susceptible to several diseases. One epidemic in this crop could wipe out India's entire grain surplus...
Plant breeders can provide India with wheat strains resistant to the pests that threaten sonalika, but, says Michael Strauss of the National Academy of Sciences, "this is not a battle you win just once." Disease germs and insects continually evolve, developing resistance to pesticides and seeking out vulnerabilities that enable them to penetrate crop defenses...
Such unrest may become more frequent in the coming years. Donald Winkelmann, CIMMYT's director general, notes that a decade ago, India's farmers could thrive even as wheat prices dropped, because production costs fell faster. Now it is harder to lower costs and, Winkelmann says, "India may not be able to count on cheap food as it has in the past as an element of industrialization." He expects crop prices to rise after mid-decade, as demand increases faster than supply...