Word: wiesner
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Dates: during 1960-1969
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...format of the book is a panel discussion, with Jerome B. Wiesner and Senator George S. McGovern arguing against development of the ABM and Donald G. Brennan and Leon W. Johnson, General, USAF (retired), arguing for it. The introduction by former Vice-President Hubert Humphrey is a reasonably effective though slightly rhetorical attempt to place opposition to the ABM in the context of general unclear disarmament. The epilogue, by Associate Justice William O. Douglas, is similar, arguing against the ABM from the standpoint of a man committed to total disarmament and the rule of international law. It is much less...
...Wiesner disposes of the first argument in short order. The figures Brennan cites are highly suspect on technological grounds, and he admits they are applicable only "assuming that the Soviets do not make a major increase in their offensive forces in response to our improved defense." The ABM would be the most incredibly complex electronic-mechanical system ever built, with all the fallability such complexity implies. The ABM's reliability could never be tested under conditions approximating those of a nuclear attack, simply because there is no way of simulating all the conditions of a nuclear attack. For example...
...Wiesner points out, even if the system works as well as the Pentagon's feasibility studies predict, we have no assurance that the Soviets will be content to maintain a static offensive force. There is every reason to believe the Soviets will increase their offense if we build an ABM system, just as we did when we discovered them deploying an ABM system around MosCow. So long as it costs more to purchase an ABM than it does to build the offensive weaponry to offset it, the ABM is tenable only if your are willing to spend some multiple...
...entire scenario, of course, is theoretical. Dr. Jerome Wiesner of M.I.T., who was John Kennedy's science adviser, notes that Sentinel is "untestable" under anything approaching simulated combat conditions. The warheads have been detonated in underground explosions, to be sure, and the missiles that carry them have been launched, but the 1963 nuclear Test-Ban Treaty prohibits nuclear explosions in space. Even without this veto, it would be fantastically difficult to stage a realistic war game featuring...
...lack vital data about the attacking missiles and about ABM performance," says Wiesner, who calls Sentinel "that Edsel of ABM's." "So we just pick some numbers that seem rational and we use them to make whatever point serves our purpose." Ted Kennedy quotes the Budget Bureau's Richard Stubbing, who evaluated $40 billion worth of aircraft and missile projects initiated since 1955 and concluded that "less than 40% of the effort produced systems with acceptable electronic performance." The implication, of course, is that if technology cannot perfect relatively simple devices, it seems highly improbable that the infinitely complex...