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...effect tends to work best when there are only one or two candidates in the race for the nomination. If three or four candidates are still in the fray on February 5, the arrangement could have the effect of further splintering the race rather than consolidating support for a winner...
...Consider the 21 G.O.P. primaries and caucuses approaching fast on February 5. Of the group, 11 of the states are winner-take-all contests, meaning, in general, that whoever gets the most of votes in any given state gets all of that state's delegates. February 5 isn't just an effective national primary; it is supposed to work like a booster rocket to the nomination. Win big on February 5 and you never have to look back...
...polls stand now - admittedly a useless indicator - the candidates are poised to split the spoils on February 5, even if we assume everyone contends for the trove of G.O.P. delegates at play in California, which is not a winner-take-all state. Let's imagine for a minute that Rudy Giuliani concentrates his efforts on four winner-take-all-states in his backyard: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware. If he won those states and (for discussion's sake) one quarter of California's congressional districts, he would take home about 343 delegates...
...Then, there are already signs that Mike Huckabee has his eye on a third set of states on Feb 5: the heartland arc of Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee. If Huckabee won all of those (and they are almost all winner-take-all states), he would take home a surprisingly large 308 delegates. (This assumes Fred Thompson retires from the field between now and then, and Huckabee does poorly in California...
...interview with TIME shortly before the Iowa caucus, Thompson spoke of his long odds in the state and reminisced about his first Senate race in 1994, noting how his last-minute zigzagging across Tennessee took him from underdog to winner. "It's the way we campaigned in Tennessee, where we went from 20 points behind to 20 points ahead all in 20 days," Thompson said, adding that he planned to deploy the same kind of "focus campaigning" in Iowa...