Word: woloshin
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...That's just one of the many muddles described in the newly released book Know Your Chances: Understanding Health Statistics, by Drs. Steven Woloshin, Lisa Schwartz and H. Gilbert Welch. If you think you're a smart and skeptical reader of health news and pharmaceutical ads, you may want to read this book first and then think again. (See the top 10 medical breakthroughs of the past year...
...Hard to argue with findings like that, but Woloshin and his co-authors offer a thought experiment: Imagine every single person who contracts Disease X dies of it at age 70. If you receive your diagnosis at age 67, you'll be gone well before the 10-year threshold is reached. Now imagine a new technology that spots early signs of the disease at age 57. If everyone gets the test, the 10-year survival rate soars to 100%, but no one in fact lives a single day longer. As with Zocor, early CT scans and early detection...
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