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...Gration is less sure. "Disintegration is not a foregone conclusion," he says. "It's my view that we can stop this." So why is South Sudan even trying, when the price of failure could be war and the price of success might be Sudan's disintegration? Why is the world helping? The answers illuminate some harsh realities about the difficulties of engaging a rogue regime, the effectiveness of aid and the limits of international influence...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: South Sudan: Can This Be the World's Newest Nation? | 4/19/2010 | See Source »

...defiance. Those views may have found traction inside the White House of Obama, who has favored mixing carrots with sticks and made a preference for engagement over confrontation a cornerstone of his foreign policy. On Oct. 19, Obama outlined a Sudan strategy that encapsulated this new U.S. approach to world affairs. Under it, the usual efforts to end fighting and boost human rights would run alongside long-term efforts to implement the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), the deal between north and south that ended their second civil...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: South Sudan: Can This Be the World's Newest Nation? | 4/19/2010 | See Source »

...People felt they would remain second-class citizens inside Sudan forever," says Ann Itto, deputy general secretary of the southern Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). Independence became the official southern goal. Under the CPA, it was also an option. Which is how, by backing a peace deal, the world now finds itself also supporting the breakup of Sudan by default...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: South Sudan: Can This Be the World's Newest Nation? | 4/19/2010 | See Source »

...Finally, there are doubts about the world's involvement. Obama's strategy is weakened by dissenters inside his Administration: Gration favors engagement; U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice wants more aggression. Such "mixed support" for engagement inevitably leads to "mixed results," says Carter. His support for the CPA and the general election it envisages is weakened by its transformation into a largely empty exercise by the pullout of most opposition parties, citing abuse, intimidation and violation of electoral law. (On April 6 a spokesman for the State Department hinted the U.S. favored postponing the vote until a more meaningful...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: South Sudan: Can This Be the World's Newest Nation? | 4/19/2010 | See Source »

...ready when it got independence," notes Carter. Gressly argues South Sudan doesn't have to be fully formed at first, particularly if the global mission to build it continues, as he expects, for "10 to 15 to 20 years." And despite the World Bank holdup, there is progress. Juba may not look like much, but at least it looks like something. "There used to be nothing," says Itto. Some point to the Carter Center's spectacular recent advances in its fight against Guinea worm, a potentially lethal parasite carried by water, as proof, as Carter says, "that success is possible...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: South Sudan: Can This Be the World's Newest Nation? | 4/19/2010 | See Source »

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