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...that there is anything so bad about even 3%, Wyss points out: "Three percent in the '80s would have been a boom." Blinder is also impressed by how much better the economy is performing than anyone would have thought possible even a few years ago. Today's Fed, he proposed, is engaged in an experiment to see if the unemployment rate can be held permanently at around today's low 4.1% without triggering rapid inflation. The test may or may not work, says Blinder--but if he or Lindsey had suggested that the idea was even worth an experiment when...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: TIME Board of Economists: The Good Bad News | 9/25/2000 | See Source »

...fact, TIME's board expects the experiment to succeed. The Fed, says Wyss, is about to pull off something never before achieved: piloting the economy to two "soft landings" in a row. The previous one was in 1995-96, when a series of earlier interest-rate increases by the Fed succeeded in draining away inflationary pressure while letting growth continue...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: TIME Board of Economists: The Good Bad News | 9/25/2000 | See Source »

...Wyss figures the economy is slowing enough to reduce the "core rate" of inflation--the underlying trend, minus usually volatile food and energy prices--to about 2.5% a year. That is believed to be just about Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's target. Result: after about a year of "below-trend" growth, output could be able to speed up again. Wyss figures the economy has the potential to grow almost 4% annually over the next 10 years...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: TIME Board of Economists: The Good Bad News | 9/25/2000 | See Source »

...biggest reason for increasing productivity, Feldstein says, is, of course, the computer and particularly the Internet. Wyss cites a little-noticed benefit: with computers, managers "can get a high school graduate to do the work a college graduate used to do." One example: a mortgage-loan applicant was once interviewed by "a trained loan officer with a college degree" who probably referred the application to a loan committee, which might have given an answer in two weeks. Today "you'd be sitting across the desk from somebody who was probably a teller two weeks ago, and she's reading...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: TIME Board of Economists: The Good Bad News | 9/25/2000 | See Source »

...result is that unemployment has recently dropped most sharply among less educated people. And, says Wyss, "by creating jobs for lower-skilled people, you have changed the basic way income is distributed." From 1973 to 1993, he notes, only the top-earning 20% of the population received any gain at all in real income, but "in the past five years the bottom 20% had the highest income gains" of any group...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: TIME Board of Economists: The Good Bad News | 9/25/2000 | See Source »

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