Word: xie
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...Some argue that overtightening is not the fundamental problem, however. Former Morgan Stanley star analyst Andy Xie, now an independent economist, questions the quality of China's recent growth. "The present economic 'recovery' began in February as inventories were restocked and was pushed up by the spillover from the asset-market revival," he contends in a recent opinion piece in Hong Kong's South China Morning Post newspaper. "These two factors cannot be sustained beyond the third quarter...
...When the market sees the second dip looming, panic will be more intense and thorough," he warns. Xie expects this economic slowdown to gather force in the fourth quarter, coinciding with a second-dip recession in the U.S. as inventory restocking and fiscal stimulus there, which are driving today's recovery, peter out. "By the middle of the second quarter next year, most of the world will have entered the second dip," he concludes. "By then, financial markets will have collapsed...
...Xie is definitely in the minority. Discounting the stock market's fall, Goldman Sachs has just boosted its growth forecast for China to 9.4% this year from 8.3% previously, and to 11.9% in 2010, from 10.9%. Bank of America Merrill Lynch is sticking to its forecast of 8.7% growth...
...that in the three years from 2008 to 2010, China will, astonishingly, account for almost three-quarters of the world's economic growth. Not surprisingly, China has now become the focus of a world that is looking for a way out of the swamp. As Shanghai-based economist Andy Xie puts it, "Everyone wants to know the same thing: Can China save the world...
...original remarks, Xie noted that Shanghai will soon have to deal with a rapidly aging population. About 22% of the city's residents are over age 60 - a figure that is projected to rise to 34% by 2020. The same looming problem faces China as a whole, says Wang, who points out that the number of young people entering the workforce between the ages of 20 and 24 will drop by half in the next decade. Like many other population experts outside China, Wang believes it is only a matter of time before the pressure to change the one-child...