Word: xie
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...anyway. "China knows that if it continues consuming and developing the way it has been, the machine will collapse," said Yvo de Boer, the head of the United Nations Framework on Climate Change. But China hasn't even said how much it will improve its carbon intensity. Xie Zhenhua, China's top environmental official, told reporters only that "we are studying this issue, and we should be able to announce a target soon...
...Some argue that overtightening is not the fundamental problem, however. Former Morgan Stanley star analyst Andy Xie, now an independent economist, questions the quality of China's recent growth. "The present economic 'recovery' began in February as inventories were restocked and was pushed up by the spillover from the asset-market revival," he contends in a recent opinion piece in Hong Kong's South China Morning Post newspaper. "These two factors cannot be sustained beyond the third quarter...
...When the market sees the second dip looming, panic will be more intense and thorough," he warns. Xie expects this economic slowdown to gather force in the fourth quarter, coinciding with a second-dip recession in the U.S. as inventory restocking and fiscal stimulus there, which are driving today's recovery, peter out. "By the middle of the second quarter next year, most of the world will have entered the second dip," he concludes. "By then, financial markets will have collapsed...
...Xie is definitely in the minority. Discounting the stock market's fall, Goldman Sachs has just boosted its growth forecast for China to 9.4% this year from 8.3% previously, and to 11.9% in 2010, from 10.9%. Bank of America Merrill Lynch is sticking to its forecast of 8.7% growth...
...With luck, the doomsday scenario may not come to pass. Xie will no doubt be happy to be proved wrong, along with the rest of the world...