Word: yankelovich
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...Admits Yankelovich: "Our greatest fail ure was to not point out more clearly that the implications of our data were that great movement could occur...
...heart of the controversy is the fact that no published survey detected the Reagan landslide before it actually happened. Three weeks before the election, for example, TIME'S polling firm, Yankelovich, Skelly and White, produced a survey of 1,632 registered voters showing the race almost dead even, as did a private survey by Caddell. Two weeks later, a survey by CBS News and the New York Times showed about the same situation...
Says TIME'S pollster Daniel Yankelovich: "There is every reason to assume that is what happened. When people are conflicted, they procrastinate. And that's what they did in this election...
...Yankelovich suggests, the main fault of the pollsters in a volatile year was that they did not view their own findings with enough skepticism - and drive the point home much more forcefully...
...Yankelovich points out that polls can produce numbers reflecting very firmly held, nearly unchangeable opinions, and can at the same time record views that are "mushy." Along with TIME, he is at work on a new technique that will show which figures are "hard" and which are "soft...