Word: yankelovich
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...election was close largely because so many voters were worried about taking a chance on Carter. After all of the national debates, after all the articles about his life and policies, the people still felt that there was some unexposed dimension about him. Says Public Opinion Analyst Daniel Yankelovich: "In the preWatergate, pre-Viet Nam era, the people were more willing to take a chance. Now they have indeed taken that chance, but by the slimmest of margins?and with enormous reservations...
...made Carter's march north from Georgia feasible. Carter does not end up as a figure who is very popular nationally; though he received 52% of the vote in the East, he lost the Midwest (49%) and the West (46.8%). It was also, for America, notes Pollster Daniel Yankelovich, an election that fractured to a marked degree along the fault line separating the haves and havenots. The affluent, the well-educated, the suburbanites largely went for Ford; the socially and economically disadvantaged for Carter. Thus Carter is in a position similar to that of John Kennedy...
...final sampling for TIME, completed Oct. 19, Pollster Daniel Yankelovich found Jimmy Carter ahead of Gerald Ford, 45% to 42%. That lead was precisely the margin by which the Democrat, according to nearly complete returns, won the popular vote (51% to 48%). George Gallup continued polling until three days before the election and gave Ford an edge of 47% to 46%. Louis Harris wound up a day later and found Carter ahead by 46% to 45%. Given the standard 3 point margin for error, all three polling organizations did well in detecting a close race...
...their final soundings, both Gallup and Harris termed the election too close to call. Each had given Carter a lead of 30 or so points immediately after the Democratic National Convention in July, and each had traced the steady-and inevitable-erosion of that lead. Yankelovich did not poll immediately after the Democratic Convention, when Ford had not yet been chosen, and consequently never found more than a 10-point lead for the Democrat. Nonetheless, he too picked up the falling-off to a dead heat but also registered Carter's rebounding to the 3% lead...
Carter's lead held up even when the Yankelovich analysts figured in the support for Eugene McCarthy. Though McCarthy could conceivably have a spoiler role in some states, the poll showed that he is actually losing ground in the 29 states in which he is on the ballot. In the nationwide sample, McCarthy wins the backing of 7% of the voters surveyed, the same proportion as in late September. But when the analysts subtracted his strength in states where he is not on the ballot, the presidential race shaped up as follows...