Word: yankelovich
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...George Gallup, it is the mostunpredictable presidential election in his four decades as a pollster. Says Daniel Yankelovich: "Voters are in complete conflict. They will tell you one thing today and something else tomorrow." Muses Louis Harris: 'The voters out there are trying to tell us something." From all indications, their message may not be at all clear until they take part in the poll that matters most...
...Gallup poll showed him dropping from 62% (and a 33-point lead) in late July to 48% (a six-point margin) as of last week. Harris had him at 66% (a lead of 39 points) in July, which fell to 47% and a five-point edge last week. Yankelovich, who conducts opinion soundings for TIME, never gave Carter more than 48% and a ten-point lead, and right after the first debate had him running dead even with Gerald Ford...
Inevitable Descent. Carter's decline, however, is rather readily explained. Both Gallup and Harris gave Carter his biggest lead immediately after the Democratic National Convention in July, when his visibility was highest and when Ford was trying to fend off the challenge of Ronald Reagan. Yankelovich gave Carter 48% to Ford's 38% in April, and a 47% to 38% edge in June. The next Yankelovich poll in late August gave Carter 46%, Ford 40%. Gallup and Harris surveys taken at about the same time reflected Carter's inevitable descent from the heights, although both still gave...
...variations in the most recent samplings can be accounted for by the standard margin for error in opinion surveys (3 points), by differences in polling techniques and by the fact that Gallup and Harris polled after the second debate, in which Carter did well. Also, Yankelovich does not try to push those who seem genuinely undecided into saying how they are leaning, while Gallup and Harris sometimes do. Thus the percentage of undecided in Yankelovich polls is generally larger. On the other hand, both Gallup and Harris try to weed out those who indicate that they are unlikely to vote...
Inner Conflict. Yankelovich stresses that a few days' difference in the polls can account for sizable variations. He also contends that there are two types of electorates: one that makes its mind up and stays put, as in 1972, when 60% of the voters had decided to support Richard Nixon before Labor Day; and the 1976 voters, who "are very unsure," torn by "inner conflicts" and who thus respond to a Ford gaffe one day, a Carter gaffe the next. "People are uneasy about Carter and find Ford an acceptable alternative," says Yankelovich. He emphasizes, as do Gallup...