Word: yardeni
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...edge of deflation here," says Edward Yardeni, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities N.A. "Companies are under enormous pressure, and that means more mergers and layoffs." If that's true, the party will be over...
Both Sinai and Varvares are raging bulls compared with Edward Yardeni, chief economist of the investment firm Deutsche Bank Securities. Formerly one of the stock market's biggest boosters, Yardeni now thinks the Dow may give one last spasmodic twitch up to 10000 by September, then fall 30% in 1999. That, he says, would be in anticipation of a global recession starting...
...Yardeni at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell and other economists hit the wires saying that rising wages will not lead to inflation in this new era. Institutions, recalling that folks like Roach have been yelling "fire!" for more than a year, start buying. The Dow recovers...
Unexpected, yes, but not inexplicable. Sinai, along with Edward Yardeni, chief economist for the investment firm Deutsche Morgan Grenfell (North America), argues that today's economy can speed along briskly without inflation because of fundamental changes that have made companies more efficient than ever. Among them: the demise of the cold war, which has lifted trade barriers and released millions of workers and billions of dollars for productive peacetime purposes; and the ubiquitous use of computers, which enables companies to book new orders or build new cars with the click of a mouse. Says Yardeni: "I'm a big believer...
...upshot is that Roach believes gross domestic product can grow safely at 2% to 2.5% a year, yet Sinai thinks it's 2.5% to 3%, and Yardeni says maybe 4%--big discrepancies in an $8 trillion economy that has lately been exceeding all those figures. The difference between 2.5% and 4% growth is $120 billion. That'd put a new car in a few driveways. The knowledge gap is widest when productivity is assessed. We assume that computers increase employee output. But Blinder wonders if we aren't using computers to get the usual amount of work done and then...