Word: yardeni
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...alone. And the impact of such born-again frugality will be harsh. It threatens to turn the Christmas shopping season that starts this week into a "pretty crummy" one, says Ed Yardeni, the chief economist for the C.J. Lawrence securities firm. Consumers are buckling beneath nearly $1 trillion in installment loans--almost twice the level of a decade ago. The average household carries $3,900 in credit-card debt alone. "Consumers are tapped out," says Peter Caruso, who follows retailing for Merrill Lynch. "There is no spending power left." Indeed, the government reported last week that retail sales dipped...
...quarter. Consumers account for two-thirds of the country's total spending, so any sharp decline in their purchases could slow the nearly five-year-old recovery or threaten to end it. "I see a 25% risk of a consumer-led recession in the first half of next year," Yardeni says...
...offset a jump in medical costs. At the same time, wholesale prices slipped 0.1% overall. "Here we are three years into the recovery and inflation is still declining," says Ross DeVol, an economist with the WEFA Group economic consulting firm. "That is unprecedented in the postwar period." Declares Ed Yardeni, chief economist for the C.J. Lawrence investment firm: "By launching what it calls a pre-emptive strike against inflation, all the Fed has done is perpetrate a meltdown in the stock and bond market and raise the serious risk of dramatically slowing the economy...
While some panicky traders took the rate hike as a signal that the bull market might be over, other Wall Street watchers shrugged off such fears. "The market overreacted," asserted Edward Yardeni, chief economist for the investment firm C.J. Lawrence. "It's better for the Fed to tighten a little bit now rather than a lot later." Yet worried traders and investors remained shaken. Said Stan Weinstein, a stock market analyst and newsletter publisher in Hollywood, Florida: "The market is going to be awfully nervous next week...
...Yardeni's point is that the predictions being made by most economists describe the sort of stable, healthy economy for which Americans have been longing for two decades or more. Few economists see the bogey of inflation or another recession returning anytime soon. In large part that's because of the widespread belief that Clinton will continue to push hard for health-care reform and budget-deficit reduction. As long as he does, interest rates and consumer prices are likely to remain...