Word: yardeni
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...Wavers insist that this flexibility has all but abolished the traditional business cycle. While they acknowledge that slumps can still strike certain weak industries, they regard broad downturns as largely a thing of the past. Says Edward Yardeni, chief economist for Prudential-Bache Securities: "The economy is now so huge, so diverse and resilient that adjustments take place that prevent economy-wide recessions...
Despite the risks, a vocal minority of economists offer a relatively bullish outlook. Among them: Yardeni, Kudlow, Nakagama and J. Paul Horne, the Paris-based chief international economist for Smith Barney. The optimists believe that the economy is not overheating and that significant progress has already been made in managing the budget deficit. Says Kudlow: "The important thing is that the deficit is coming down. It is the direction that is far more important than the level of the deficit." Echoes Nakagama: "The worst is behind...
...inflation before it buds, a policy some economists believe could be dangerous. Says Sidney Jones, a professor at Georgetown University's business school: "The Federal Reserve is overreacting to the risk of what it perceives as an overheated economy. I don't think it's there." Adds Edward Yardeni, chief economist for Prudential- Bache Securities: "I hope Greenspan doesn't do too good a job of keeping the lid on, because it could cause a recession. I don't think he will, but he could take some of the joy out of the Christmas season...
...Edward Yardeni, director of economics at Prudential-Bache Securities, also sees an interruption of the business cycle, but for a different reason. Rather than an economy-wide downturn, he says, the U.S. has been experiencing a "rolling recession" that has moved from one sector to another without halting overall growth. While agriculture, the oil business and heavy industries like steel have slumped in recent years, high-tech companies, financial services and fast-food outlets have thrived. Now retailers and stockbrokers may be facing hard times, but farming and manufacturing are recovering...
That boost in productivity will help U.S. companies to curb costs and keep prices under control. "We're going to have productivity-led growth," says Yardeni of Prudential-Bache. "And that doesn't necessarily push inflation rates higher." Among the economists polled, the median forecast for next year's increase in the Consumer Price Index was 4.6%, virtually the same as the 4.3% rise currently projected...