Word: yardeni
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...national product, after adjustment for inflation, to slow only slightly, from 3.4% this year to 2.7% in 1988. Asserts Sam Nakagama of the Manhattan-based consulting firm Nakagama & Wallace: "Views are changing radically right now. It appears we are going to have a vigorous economy next year." Agrees Edward Yardeni, chief economist of Prudential-Bache Securities: "Much to everyone's surprise, the economy didn't even flinch from the crash. Clearly, I do not see a recession coming...
...wonder everyone from brokers on Wall Street to mortgage holders on Main Street shares an apprehension about where the economy is headed. Says Edward Yardeni, chief economist at Prudential-Bache: "The only thing we know for sure is that these are volatile times. We've never had such a wild mix of good news and bad news." Says Alan Weston, president of Los Angeles-based Weston Capital Management: "A lot of investors have become really unnerved by the climate out there...
...worldwide growth. At the same time, however, a further fall in oil prices could deal a crippling blow to U.S. energy firms and debt-ridden oil producers, including Mexico, Nigeria and Venezuela. Their woes might then threaten banks and rock the international financial system. Says Edward Yardeni, chief economist for Prudential-Bache Securities: "The oil-price collapse suddenly woke people up to the fact that the financial crisis is still out there. We'd become so jaded that it didn't seem to worry anybody anymore...
Many economists believe that the dollar is now overvalued by as much as 50%. And while the American currency could fall just as far and just as fast as it has risen, experts do not foresee rapid changes. Says Edward Yardeni, chief economist for Prudential-Bache: "It is quite possible that the 1980s will prove to be the dollar's decade to move up, just the way the 1970s was the dollar's decade to move down...
Beyond that, the Japanese point out, the U.S. is not entirely free of protectionist reflexes. Besides negotiating the "voluntary" restraint on cars, the Reagan Administration has imposed a 25% import duty on Japanese small trucks. As for the allegedly aggressive takeover of U.S. consumer markets, Yardeni admits succinctly, "Part of the problem is that the Japanese make awfully good products." Also, U.S. businessmen bring a few cultural barriers of their own to the bargaining, starting with their reluctance to become fluent in the language of their prospective clients. Jokes an official of the Foreign Ministry in Tokyo...