Word: year-end
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...remarkably placid start, to be sure. According to Sinai, the output of American goods and services will rise a lackluster 2.6% in 1998, with consumer prices going up a tiny 1.4%. Corporate profits will increase a hair less than 6.5% (vs. 10% last year). Unemployment will rise to 5% by year-end, while interest rates will drop to just under 5.5% on 30-year Treasury bonds. In sum, says Sinai, the economy will be "downshifting from great times to good times." Not surprisingly, the 1997 combination of output's leaping almost 4% while unemployment shriveled to a 24-year...
...might think times are flush on Wall Street, what with stock prices at historic highs and ridiculously rich year-end bonuses in the bank. Somebody, after all, just paid a record $2 million for a seat on the New York Stock Exchange. And in lower Manhattan supplies remain tight for rental limos and $20 cigars. Strangely, though, supplies aren't tight at all for traders, bankers and brokers. In a striking irony the financial chefs who for years have cooked up corporate takeovers and restructurings--all smelling like layoffs to working stiffs--are today being served those same entrees. Well...
...extracurricular activities (including new ones) with even greater enthusiasm, the chance to explore possible careers, and other interests all seem enhanced once students are beyond the college admissions pressure. Applicants admitted early almost always continue to work hard and successfully (with no more than the normal small number of year-end declines) and often note that they arrive at Harvard more refreshed and motivated than would otherwise have been the case...
...your holiday trousers. But it does suggest that the risk of a retraction is more acute. A stiff sell-off last week--the worst New Year's start in seven years--underscores that point. And with Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan now spouting off about possible deflation in the economy, it may pay to favor bonds for a while. I'd certainly be slow to invest any new wads of cash--say, a year-end bonus--all in the stock market. More on that later. First, let's take stock of the times...
...crunch time for the movie business. Print labs, publicity machines, moguls' teeth--all are grinding overtime to get a bunch of pricey or prestige-laden films into theaters by Christmastime. You'd think Hollywood was Toys "R" Us, doing a Simba's share of business at year-end, or that releasing a serious film at holiday time helped win Oscars. No and no. The summer is still box-office prime time; and in the past five years, only six of the 25 Oscar nominees for Best Picture were released in December. Yet that is when studios launch dozens of ambitious...