Word: yen
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...strong yen is slowing the pace of Japanese exports, but Tokyo is still feeling the pressure to shrink its swollen foreign trade surplus. Last week Japanese Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone took new steps--or perhaps half steps--to meet those international pressures by vowing to change the habits of his country's 120 million thrifty citizens. On the eve of a weekend visit to Camp David to discuss the seven-nation annual economic summit that Japan will host in May, Nakasone accepted a report by a Cabinet advisory committee that outlined ways to wean the Japanese away from an export...
Japan, which imports 99.8% of the oil it uses, could save as much as $23 billion on crude this year, which will help offset the loss of export business it has suffered because of the rapid appreciation of the yen. Oil-using nations that are less well off will benefit too. In sub-Saharan Africa, lower expenses for transportation and farming could start to raise living standards after many years of decline. Some countries with state-owned oil companies, notably India and Pakistan, have so far refused to pass savings along to consumers, deciding instead to spend the money...
...first two months of this year, exports were up an impressive 38%, prompting some economists to talk about 9% growth for 1986. That mini-miracle has been assisted by the drop in the price of oil, a major South Korean import, and by the steady rise of the yen, which handicaps rival Japanese products...
While the yen's rise was causing havoc in Tokyo, it was good news for American exporters. Japanese consumers are already taking advantage of bargain prices on American wines, foods and sporting goods. But most U.S. economists agree that the dollar must decline further if U.S. companies are to become fully competitive with their Japanese rivals. "You ain't seen nothing yet," says Rimmer de Vries, the chief international economist for New York's Morgan Guaranty Trust. "Another 20% yen appreciation is absolutely necessary before the U.S. can start to work off its trade deficit with Japan." Some economists think...
...knowing where or when the yen's rise will stop, Japanese companies are trying to cut costs. Some firms are planning to shift production abroad to avoid further exchange-related losses. Victor Co. of Japan will begin producing videocassette tapes in Tuscaloosa, Ala., this fall, and plans to double production of audio equipment at its Singapore plant. Says Darrel Whitten, associate director of research at Bache Securities (Japan) Ltd.: "The strong yen will accelerate this tendency to rely on overseas production, just as the strong dollar helped push American manufacturing and assembly overseas...