Word: yergin
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...Yergin claims that America is suffering from an "oil-glut psychology": oil seems plentiful, OPEC looks to be in shambles, and promises of alternative energy sources seem just one technological step away. With the minds of American consumers and industries on other things, Yergin's doom and gloom approach is not very welcome. However, the appearance of this book and the attendant publicity surrounding it will hopefully begin to change prevailing attitudes. In all, Global Insecurity is a much needed prescription for our energy complacency...
...could avert an energy crisis, Yergin concedes--provided there is stability in the Mideast, accelerated development of alternate energy technology (i.e., synthetic fuels, nuclear, and solar), and substantial domestic conservation. However, because such prospects currently are more dream than impending reality, Yergin finds the problem too important to wait out with fingers crossed...
...increase by 2.6 percent annually and there would be healthy Western economic growth. The more pessimistic offering is the Lower Bound. It forecasts political upheavals in oil centers--which might be under Soviet influence--no domestic oil discoveries and little progress in developing other energy methods. Both Stobaugh and Yergin believe the Lower Bound is a more likely predicament...
...indeed the Lower Bound prevails, the U.S. will have to find alternative sources of energy to fuel its economy. Yergin believes that economic growth is the key to the survival of Western society. And energy, he argues, is the key to economic growth. By depending greatly on foreign sources with fluctuating prices, Western governments have had a hard time trying to organize coherent energy plans and efficient market corrections. Business have difficulty attempting to gauge energy prices and are afraid to make investments beyond the short term. It is that lack of long-term thinking in both the public...
However, more immediate fears are predicated on what would happen if the oil supply to industrialized countries was suddenly cut off. The Arab oil embargo in 1973 and the fall of the shah in 1978 were oil shocks which, according to Yergin, could foreshadow a more rehabilitating oil stoppage. Those two events alone hiked the price of OPEC oil by four and two-and-a-half times respectively, clearly contributing to the West's high inflation and unemployment rates. Yergin predicts that a third oil shock could shake the economic systems of Western countries that have not yet learned...