Word: yergin
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That chilling prospect is one of the possibilities foreseen in Global Insecurity: A Strategy for Energy & Economic Renewal (Houghton Mifflin; 427 pages; $15.95), a sometimes frightening, but still generally hopeful, survey of the energy outlook published last week. The book, which is edited by Political Scientist Daniel Yergin of Harvard University and Martin Hillenbrand, director of the Atlantic Institute for International Affairs in Paris, was prepared during the past four years by a group of mostly academic contributors from the U.S., Western Europe and Japan. They included: Teruyasu Murakami, a senior consultant at the Nomura Research Institute in Japan...
...Yergin, co-author of the 1979 bestseller Energy Future and contributor of two of the twelve essays in this volume, warns that a devastating energy crisis could erupt at any time. He writes: "That, in a nub, is the problem for the United States and the entire industrial world, and is why we have undertaken this study." Yer gin fears that the current small glut in perils supplies will lull industrialized countries into the type of complacency that leads U.S. auto buyers to want to rush back to big cars as soon as gas prices seem to abate...
...remains of the petroglut and pushing prices higher. Most experts, though, felt that the war is unlikely to trigger an immediate crisis because the global economic slump continues to hold down energy use. But the energy situation will again become dangerous once world economies start growing. Writes Yergin: "The more likely flash point occurs when accidents interact with a market in which demand is rising, as was discovered in 1973 and 1979. Thus, the world enters the danger zone when economic activity and energy demands are on the upswing...
...total of $1.2 trillion in lost eco nomic growth between 1974 and 1981. In addition, the increased prices have dou bled unemployment rates and nearly tri pled the pace of inflation. The shares of their gross national products that Western economies spend on energy have also tri pled. Writes Yergin: "Thus, an oil price rise of any given magnitude will now have a greater effect on the consuming nations than the first or second shock...
...alcohol is still in experimental stages, Yergin said, adding that although renewable sources are feasible in the long run, conservation should be the main new source of energy now. Citing the Boston-based Gillette Company's 30-per-cent reduction of energy, Yergin said that the United States could use 30- to 40-per-cent less energy without sacrificing its present standard of living...