Word: yergin
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...fifth comes from Saudi Arabia. A complete shutdown of exports would, of course, hurt the U.S. economy, but it would hurt the Saudi one--which needs strong growth to satisfy a booming population--even more. "We haven't heard the word embargo for a long time," says Daniel Yergin, of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "Most exporters are interested in stability. They don't want to shrink their own markets." The Saudis could conceivably decide that they would no longer use their excess capacity--as they do now--to smooth out market volatilities. Partly because of uncertainty as to Saudi intentions...
...likely to be deeper, though not necessarily longer, as nervous consumers and business executives put off discretionary spending. The impact of a global downturn on the demand for energy "is the dominant factor by far" in its price today, outweighing speculative concerns about supply, according to Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy. "We may be looking at the worst global recession for 30 years...
...same time, California has cast its shadow over ambitious deregulation plans being launched in such states as Oklahoma, Nevada and Arkansas (see following stories). Says Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates: "The California crisis puts questions about our entire energy infrastructure front and center...
...deregulation plan that did not live up to the word deregulation but also from California's failure to complete a single large power plant over the past 10 years, even as Silicon Valley boomed and the state economy expanded 34%. "This is virtually a crisis by design," says Yergin. "At the heart of the problem in California is the lack of new construction...
...absence of a Middle East war or some other unforeseen calamity, the price of crude is expected to drift down after the winter peak-demand period, perhaps to less than $30 per bbl. by spring and even into the low-$20 range by the end of 2001. Says Yergin, one of the country's foremost experts on the energy supply: "We should see the fundamentals of supply and demand reassert themselves over the tension that has been driving the market for much of this year...