Word: yugoslavia
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...spell trouble for everyone. The Russian republic's overwhelming military might would intimidate others in the confederation. Ethnic conflicts, especially in the south, would be more likely to escalate to all-out war. And a Russian-dominated central army might invite a replay of the disaster that has befallen Yugoslavia, where the supposedly federal army is in reality a Serbian army...
...armored columns from the Soviet Union, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and East Germany (remember East Germany?) from rolling to the English Channel. The alliance has survived the victory of the West and the disbanding of the Warsaw Pact. But unless it can help defuse disasters like the one now destroying Yugoslavia and threatening peace throughout southern Europe, NATO too will end in retirement. Thinking about what will take its place has barely begun...
...they become a federation, in which the republics yield some coordinating economic authority to a central government, or a confederation, an alliance, some sort of cooperative? Will they adopt a cooler, well-machined nationalism in the style of Western Europe? Or revert to the atavistic warring tribalism that threatens Yugoslavia...
...ethnic Serbs have fled across Croatia's borders, mostly into the Serbian province of Vojvodina and the republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina. The Croatian retreat from embattled zones where Serbian militias have triumphed over Croatian defense forces has dislodged tens of thousands of villagers. But a formal remapping of Yugoslavia, with its six republics and two autonomous provinces, could deepen the crisis. Historically, population exchanges have produced bloodshed and pillaging. Moreover, if Serbia wrests territorial concessions from Croatia, what is to stand in the way of a Croatian-Serbian scheme to carve up Bosnia, where ethnic Serbs, Croatians and Muslims mingle...
...then to stop the lunacy before Yugoslavia erupts in wholesale civil war? The Yugoslavs have signaled that an enduring peace must be brokered internally, not imposed by external forces. The E.C. would like to oblige, but fears are growing that a European military intervention might be necessary. "The moment may not be too far away when we have to take a step forward," Jacques Poos, the Foreign Minister of Luxembourg, warned last week. The E.C.'s proposal for a three-month moratorium on independence offers the same face- saving opportunity that quieted hostilities in the breakaway republic of Slovenia...