Word: yugoslavic
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...blue-ribbon United Nations panel assessing the condition of a still unified Yugoslavia back in 1991 called it a state in the "process of dissolution." Well, it took 10 years of bloodshed, but the job is almost done. The original six Yugoslav republics have been whittled down to two. First Slovenia and Croatia went their own ways, then Bosnia withdrew, triggering the long siege of Sarajevo, then Macedonia managed to get out miraculously without violence. Now, with a seemingly minor election later this week in the small mountain republic of Montenegro, Serbia's remaining partner in the incredible shrinking federation...
...election pits the ruling party of President Milo Djukanovic, a former ally of Slobodan Milosevic who broke with the strongman in 1997, against a pro-Yugoslav opposition with close ties to the democratic leadership in Belgrade. If Djukanovic wins - and polls currently give his coalition 44% of the vote vs. 26% for his nearest rivals - he has vowed to hold a referendum on independence from Serbia as early as June. Various polls peg support for independence at between 47% and 58%, and that is likely to grow once a secessionist campaign begins. Djukanovic, 39, enjoys considerable personal authority...
...least it will be peaceful. Less than a year ago, threats by Djukanovic to hold a referendum raised fears of a new Balkan war. But while Yugoslav troops are still stationed in Montenegro, Kostunica affirmed this month that his government would not oppose secession - though he frankly finds it a bad idea. So does the rest of Europe, which fears the precedent in an already unstable region...
...Dejan Anastasijevic: Djukanovic will stay on course for independence, but it will be a lot more difficult now. Essentially, these results show that the country is deeply divided between those who want independence and those who want to remain part of the Yugoslav federation. Djukanovic's coalition came out only a few thousand votes ahead of the parties that want to remain in Yugoslavia. Of course the support of the liberals tips the balance in his favor, but that also makes his life more difficult because the liberals will also push him to move faster on independence than he would...
...Last time there were elections in Montenegro, every Western chief of mission in Belgrade was sent to Podgorica on election day. This time, they were told not to attend, which was a message in itself. The international community hopes to persuade Djukanovic to reconsider - he's been saying the Yugoslav federation should be broken up, and then some looser relationship negotiated with Serbia. But the West wants to convince him to stay in the federation and negotiate a new relationship with Serbia. And against that will be the pressure from the liberals, who will try to push...