Word: zeros
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SHILLER It is not reasonable that the risk premium should be zero. You can buy inflation indexed bonds at 4% [risk free]. That's why I am a big advocate of index bonds. It is one of my campaigns...
SHILLER But consider one 20-year period, which was '29 to '49, [the return] was just about zero. If you look at a broad indication of the world and history, it has been at times very risky, and it certainly has the potential to be risky in the next century, which is the future. Not the past...
...socialism signifies a political and economic system in which the government controls a large part of the economy and redistributes wealth to produce social equality, then I think it is safe to say the likelihood of its making a comeback anytime in the next generation is close to zero. But the egalitarian political impulse to constrain the power of the wealthy in the interests of the weak and marginal remains strong and is already making a comeback. There are good reasons for thinking this impulse will not lead to new radical groups' achieving political power and implementing a coherent political...
SHILLER See, [your] book title, if you look at it, it says, The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market. You are selling books by telling people the risk premium is going to go to zero in three to five years. And you present no evidence for that...
...decline drives up prices.] Alan Greenspan says, "The question is, Is this decline temporary or is it permanent?" We offer a third alternative we think is a reasonable alternative, which is, Will it continue [to decline] to what we believe to be its reasonable resting place, which is around zero? If stocks and bonds are equally risky over the long term, there should be no equity risk premium. It should be close to zero...